Foreign Trade: Outlook for 2022

SÃO PAULO – If we take into account the projections of international organizations, the global economy, which saw growth in 2021, is expected to experience a less intense pace in 2022, even though the developments of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic are unpredictable, given the emergence of the Omicron variant. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a growth rate of 4.9% for the global economy in 2022, after recording a 5.9% increase in 2021, while the World Bank is less optimistic and estimates a growth rate of 4.3% in 2022 compared to 5.6% in 2021.

For the Brazilian economy, the IMF predicts a growth rate of only 1.5% in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nevertheless, since Brazil is fundamentally dependent on what happens with the global economy, it is believed that the country could achieve a more significant growth rate, especially if there is no slowdown in the Chinese economy and commodity prices (oil and grains) continue to rise in the international market.

This means that trade in Brazil will continue to depend on the demand for commodities, as the country, like almost all of Latin America, is going through a phase of deindustrialization due to the lack of development of new technologies, which makes its products less competitive. To make matters worse, there is a trend toward strengthening large trade agreements that mainly defend regional interests, which brings difficulties for Latin American countries, except perhaps for Mexico, which is practically integrated into the North American market.

Apparently, it will not be in the current government that the country will create conditions to combat the so-called “Custo Brasil” (Brazil Cost), a term that encompasses a set of structural, bureaucratic, labor, and economic difficulties that hinder growth, negatively influence the business environment, raise the prices of domestic products and logistics costs, as well as compromise investments and contribute to excessive tax burdens. According to the Industry Portal, it is estimated that the “Custo Brasil” takes away R$ 1.5 trillion per year from companies operating in the country, representing 20.5% of GDP.

To combat this chaos, the federal government, with the support of the National Congress, would have to implement an effective tax reform, reduce bureaucracy in foreign trade, expand current trade agreements, seek others with broad reach, and encourage investment in innovation.

But what we see is exactly the opposite, as shown by the reaction of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) to the publication in December by the Federal Revenue of Ordinance No. 100/2021, which deactivates its statistical data system on customs operations, known as “Siscori.” As is known, “Siscori” is considered a key piece for obtaining more detailed information about Brazilian imports, such as operation prices, clearance units, among others.

According to a CNI statement, the system is essential to combat the importation of products that do not meet important regulatory requirements for the protection of public health and the environment, subvalued products, or products that engage in various frauds, such as false declaration of origin or fiscal classification. In other words, it represents an important ally of the private sector for monitoring and identifying irregular operations. Obviously, taking the system offline will pose significant risks and difficulties in combating illegal and fraudulent imports, as predicted by CNI.

According to the CNI statement, the information provided by “Siscori” is unique and different from what is found in the “Comex Stat” system. Therefore, these are complementary systems. Given this, what is expected is that the decision of the Federal Revenue will be reconsidered, and the “Siscori” system will be made available again for all.

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Liana Lourenço Martinelli, lawyer, postgraduate in Business Management and International Trade, is the Manager of Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) at the Fiorde Group, consisting of Fiorde International Logistics, FTA Transport, Warehouses, and Barter International Trade. Email: lianalourenco@fiorde.com.br. Website: fiorde.com.br.

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